Where does Martha Karua fit in the 2017 puzzle?
09 March 2015, 19:26
Nairobi - Martha Karua will vie for the presidency in the 2017 General Election she has announced, but where does she fit in the political puzzle?
Karua announced over the weekend that she is in the race for the presidency and that she had taken a break to reassess what was a disappointing show in the 2013 polls.
Her announcement,which was expected considering she is still the Narc Kenya chairperson will obviously mean that there is yet another candidate for Kenyans to choose from in the next elections.
Apart from that though what will be her significance in the upcoming poll? Will she be a major player? Is she capable of winning it? Those are just some of the questions posed to political analyst Michael Njenga, who sees Karua as abit of a puzzle.
" I like her as an individual and so do many Kenyans. She has qualities that many desire in a potential future president," he says.
" However, considering that the local political scene is straightforward in regards to voting patters, she does fail to tick many boxes.
" First, she is not a tribal chief, so will likely not attract the tribal vote (Kikuyu), which will exclusively go to president Uhuru Kenyatta.
" Also, she does not command a specific voting block. For example, women, youth or so and her party is not popular, and has no popular persons to identify with.
" That will mean that she falls into a so called third tier of candidates.
" The first tier is a group of two, with the president and CORD leader Raila Odinga taking them. They can be described as national leaders on their own.
" The second tier is that of those who will need help to win the presidency but still have a voting block. Here lies Kalonzo Musyoka, William Ruto, Moses Wetangula, Musalia Mudavadi. They can offer votes on the table to help the top two contest, or can be boosted by the top two if need be.
" Then there is Karua who falls into category three. They need the top two tiers together to support them for the presidency and that is highly unlikely.
" If there is an idealistic leader I like and I am sure many Kenyans do, it is Karua but in the current climate and landscape, she will not win the election," he added.
According to Bosco Ntumezi, a political sciences lecturer, Karua would do well for the campaign of a certain candidate.
" She will lift the profile of a Raila or Uhuru or Kalonzo because of her track record and what she stands for, which is all very positive.
" As a stand alone candidate sadly, she does not offer much and will lose the election just like she did in 2013," he adds.
Karua, speaking over the weekend, called on women to support her push for the top most poll, saying that they cannot expect their lives to be improved by people who have failed them in the past.
" The current constitution supports equality and there is need for women to support each other," she said.
The support of women will help her build a case for the presidency if she can land it, a good place to start for the 'Iron Lady' of Kenyan politics.
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