Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.

 
PLEASE NOTE:

MyNews24 is a user-generated section of News24 Kenya. The stories here come from users.

 
 
Latest Badges:

 
View all Manasseh's badges.
 

Mutahi Ngunyi's theory considered 'mental laziness'

20 February 2013, 20:30 Wangui Joseph

Political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi’s tyranny of numbers theory has received critique from his counterpart Professor Peter Kagwanja who considers the concept mere ‘mental laziness’.

Kagwanja said Mutahi’s argument cannot work and is not viable claiming that voters must be ready for a run off in the presidential election.

According to Mutahi, Jubilee coalition will win in the first round with a landslide.

He was basing his argument on Kenyans' voting tradition where they support a candidate on basis of tribe, ethnicity and region saying that since Uhuru and Ruto are members of major tribes in the country, that guarantees them victory.

More so, their tribes (Kikuyu and Kalenjin) registered overwhelmingly in the recent exercise of voter registration.

However, he said voter registration turn out was not much impressive in Nyanza; considering it is Raila’s back yard and his running mate’s background, there will be a swing vote not a block.

Conversely, Kagwanja argued that there is no justifying reason to argue that all Mount Kenya region people will vote for Uhuru considering that the region has two other presidential candidates and they too have their share.

On the other hand, he asserted that not every Luo will vote for Raila or CORD coalition.

Mutahi had argued that Jubilee coalition won elections in December last year immediately the voter registration exercise was completed.

Basing his argument on voter registration statistics, Mutahi put Uhuru ahead of his closest rival Raila Odinga assuming that voting will be based on ethnic lines.

He however put Amani Coalition led by Musalia Mudavadi at position three with a total vote of about 1.7Million assuming that Luhyas will vote as a block.

The two analysts nevertheless agree that Amani coalition will be the determining factor in case of a run off.

“In such an instance, Jubilee has to befriend Mudavadi in all ways either not forgetting that they irritably parted ways after Uhuru failed to fulfill his promise to Mudavadi,” said Kagwanja.

He added that in any chance, Amani coalition might split during run off when its members may take their preferred sides, either Jubilee or Cord.

Kagwanja further argued that opinion polls are releasing information contrary to his observations and beliefs as a professional.

“To me, Jubilee will win in the first round though it will not attain the required 50 plus one per cent of the total vote cast,” said the professor.

Both coalitions are composed of two major tribes in the country thus building more trust and confidence to their internal sources, according to Kagwanja.

 
Disclaimer: All articles and letters published on MyNews24 have been independently written by members of News24's community. The views of users published on News24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of News24. News24 editors also reserve the right to edit or delete any and all comments received.
NEXT ON NEWS24 KENYAX

Read News24’s Comments Policy

Comment on this story
1 comment
Add your comment
Comment 0 characters remaining

Read more from our Users

Submitted by
Eugene Odanga
Uhuru loses cousin in grisly road...

President Uhuru Kenyatta has lost his cousin in a grisly road accident along Thika highway. Read more...

Submitted by
Eugene Odanga
Gospel artistes in Christmas coll...

Gospel artistes have collaborated for a massive Christmas carol. Read more...

Submitted by
Shakila Alivitsa
6 types of women to avoid

There are women to have and women to totally avoid. Read more...

Submitted by
Shakila Alivitsa
Not all rich men are good men

Women must not always fall for the guy with the money and fancy living standard. Read more...

Submitted by
DareelEric
MCAs allocate themselves huge per...

Residents of Vihiga County are threatening to take their Members of the County Assembly to court to explain the legality of apportioning themselves thousands of shillings as Christmas gifts. Read more...

Submitted by
Ken Wekesa
Suspected Kaloleni police camp ra...

The Mombasa law court has charged 53 men suspected to have raided a police camp in Kaloleni within Kilifi County last month for being members of the outlawed Mombasa Republican Council. Read more...