Political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi’s tyranny of numbers theory has received critique from his counterpart Professor Peter Kagwanja who considers the concept mere ‘mental laziness’.
Kagwanja said Mutahi’s argument cannot work and is not viable claiming that voters must be ready for a run off in the presidential election.
According to Mutahi, Jubilee coalition will win in the first round with a landslide.
He was basing his argument on Kenyans' voting tradition where they support a candidate on basis of tribe, ethnicity and region saying that since Uhuru and Ruto are members of major tribes in the country, that guarantees them victory.
More so, their tribes (Kikuyu and Kalenjin) registered overwhelmingly in the recent exercise of voter registration.
However, he said voter registration turn out was not much impressive in Nyanza; considering it is Raila’s back yard and his running mate’s background, there will be a swing vote not a block.
Conversely, Kagwanja argued that there is no justifying reason to argue that all Mount Kenya region people will vote for Uhuru considering that the region has two other presidential candidates and they too have their share.
On the other hand, he asserted that not every Luo will vote for Raila or CORD coalition.
Mutahi had argued that Jubilee coalition won elections in December last year immediately the voter registration exercise was completed.
Basing his argument on voter registration statistics, Mutahi put Uhuru ahead of his closest rival Raila Odinga assuming that voting will be based on ethnic lines.
He however put Amani Coalition led by Musalia Mudavadi at position three with a total vote of about 1.7Million assuming that Luhyas will vote as a block.
The two analysts nevertheless agree that Amani coalition will be the determining factor in case of a run off.
“In such an instance, Jubilee has to befriend Mudavadi in all ways either not forgetting that they irritably parted ways after Uhuru failed to fulfill his promise to Mudavadi,” said Kagwanja.
He added that in any chance, Amani coalition might split during run off when its members may take their preferred sides, either Jubilee or Cord.
Kagwanja further argued that opinion polls are releasing information contrary to his observations and beliefs as a professional.
“To me, Jubilee will win in the first round though it will not attain the required 50 plus one per cent of the total vote cast,” said the professor.
Both coalitions are composed of two major tribes in the country thus building more trust and confidence to their internal sources, according to Kagwanja.
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